Former editor of the Buenos Aires Herald (1979-1986).
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Between the Atlantic Ocean and the China Sea there are
at least half a dozen “rogue states”, countries that are
unable to find a satisfactory place in an international order
in which only economic prowess counts. There could soon
be many more, some of them armed to the teeth and led
by warlike individuals who greatly value piety and are determined
to keep the modern age at bay. One such is Iran.
North Americans, Europeans and East Asians are undecided
about how to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear arsenal. With
the possible exception of the Chinese, who know a thing or two
about the power of ideology and are currently “reeducating” millions of Muslims in an effort to save them from what the antiterrorism experts euphemistically call “radicalisation”, few are much
interested in what is going on in the ayatollahs’
heads. All most want is for them to stop stirring up
trouble. Meanwhile, they will let the US take charge of the situation and do their best to profit from
whatever misunderstandings may arise.
There are sure to be many. In the US it has long
been obligatory to pretend that people are much
the same everywhere, which is why so many desperately want to become North Americans. Oldfashioned sceptics who say cultural differences
should sometimes be taken into account tend to be
distrusted by allegedly hard-headed realists in Washington who
seem to be especially prone to overlook whatever they find inconvenient.
George W. Bush and his advisors assumed that all human beings
wanted to be free and would give an enthusiastic welcome to anybody who would rid them of
oppressors; many Westerneducated Afghans and Iraqis
agreed, but there were not
enough them to make building
democracy in their part of the
world as easy as optimists had
assumed. In chronically insecure regions like the Middle
East and Africa, many people
find freedom uncomfortable
and much prefer to be told what
to do. Were that not the case,
democracy or something like
it would flourish the world
Donald Trump is less highminded than Bush or, for that matter, Barack Obama, who apparently thought that terrorism would fade away if the US apologized
convincingly enough for being so strong, wealthy and influential.
Trump’s approach to the problems posed by sworn enemies of the
country he presides over is rudimentary; he takes it for granted that
what people really want is more stuff, lots of it, and don’t mind
where it comes from. That is why for over a year he has been either
threatening Kim Jong-un with a fiery end or telling him that, in
exchange for the dismantling of a couple of nuclear plants and some
missiles, he would see to it that North Korea became as rich as the
capitalist South. Last week, he made much the same offer to Ali
Khameini, the Supreme Leader of Iran, a man who enjoys hearing
his followers shout Death to America.
Trump’s theory about what makes people tick has its merits.
Individuals who are more interested in piling up consumer goods,
often for symbolic purposes, than in anything else have always been
ill treated by those who see themselves as intellectuals, but all but
the greediest and crassest of shoppers is less dangerous than those
who, like Shakespeare’s Cassius, “think too much”.
Many of these, including some of the brightest, are attracted
by the single-minded revolutionaries and religious fanatics who use
their fellow human beings as pieces of clay to be twisted into whatever shape they think desirable and which, if they cannot be made
to fit into the appropriate slots, should be consigned to the rubbish
The prospect of getting the fabulous amounts
of material goods that Trump, like a benevolent
deity, is dangling in front of Kim, Khamenei and
their respective underlings could affect the behaviour of the former, who would want to have them
all for himself, but the latter, in public at least, would
dismiss the notion with contempt as yet another
example of Western decadence that should be
righteously spurned by all believers.
It is entirely possible that, after mulling it
over, Kim will feel tempted to take the bait being offered by
Trump. He must rather like the idea of reuniting Korea under
an arrangement that would allow him to keep his own freedom
and the loot he has piled up, even he was not named president
for life. It would be less exciting than watching the White House go up in smoke as in a video game, but for him it would make
an attractive retirement plan. As for his granddad’s Juche version of communism, he will see it as part of the comic-book world
people of his age got brought up in.
But Khamenei seems to be a far tougher bird than Kim. Despite the opposition of a growing number of Iranians, the devastating
collapse of the birth rate and a series of economic calamities that
have been made worse by US sanctions, the Islamic revolution that
was kicked off by his predecessor, the ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1979 is still a going concern. It depends on willpower, not on
the military deployment of high tech gadgetry, and the feeling that
at long last the West is in retreat does not seem to have been that
much affected by Trump’s sporadic bellicosity. While some of the
men in Iran’s ruling circles may be as scornful of religiosity as any
18th century freethinker, there are enough fanatics to ensure they
all toe the officially approved line. And, like the Sunni jihadis of the
Islamic State group, they run organisations for which thousands of
young people are eager to die.
Many Westerners say they find such a death wish incomprehensible, something to do with oriental fatalism; they forget that, until
quite recently, their own forefathers felt similarly devoted to their
own country. For a fervent believer, a religious or political cult is a
fatherland or motherland. Pace Wilfred Owen, in many societies,
“dulce et decorum est pro patria mori” is not the discredited “old
lie” it has been among the intelligentsia in much of the Englishspeaking world for over a hundred years. For many millions of
people, a willingness to die on behalf of something greater than
oneself is what gives meaning to life.